Ree investigation because of the area, most of the part displays a very comparable pattern: This is remarkable once the, with the December 19, the latest limits have been put on London area and you will areas of the newest Eastern and you can South-east you to in certain implies prefigured the latest lockdown, therefore if strict restrictions had a big effect you expect observe a whole lot more noticable differences between regions. It will search as though problems started to fall a tiny bit sooner or later and fell somewhat quicker about places in which more stringent constraints was indeed set up, although feeling was hardly unbelievable and you will, when i will show you after, the outcome doesn’t mean that it was causal there are good reasons to help you doubt it was.
There are numerous you are able to reasons for it obvious inconsistency
Indeed, while it seems as if frequency reach fall before the lockdown came into effect within the analysis toward times, new Function-step 1 investigation , various other regular mix-sectional survey off SARS-CoV-dos swab-positivity within the arbitrary samples of the people from England whoever eighth round was held throughout the two weeks adopting the start of this new lockdown, didn’t find one belong this new positivity rates immediately after the fresh new lockdown been: Clearly, the fresh new positivity speed didn’t start losing until age towards impact. Actually looking at enough time it will require involving the time some body try contaminated in addition to moment the herpes virus possess replicated enough getting an excellent PCR sample to return self-confident, this seems too-late on lockdown to explain they.